Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
