Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
